A Disruptive Transformation

Manikandan P, Head of EngineeringStrongly committed to realizing the nation's vision through empowering not just the organization but also players across industries, Bosch India is leveraging opportunities and competencies to turn India's growth vision into a reality. Bosch endeavors to provide technologies and solutions to equip India to find a place amongst the top global economies within the next few decades.

Mobility ­ the movement of people and goods ­ is a fundamental human need and a key enabler of economic and social prosperity. After decades of relative stability, the mobility environment is undergoing a remarkable transformation with the advent of fourth industrial revolution technologies, new business models, and changing customers and shifting consumer preferences.

Electric Mobility is the most talked about subject in the present time. The transportation industry, business, and methods preparing for a major transformation in the next decades as we read this statement, there are many initiatives getting high rocketed across the globe, industry, and institutions.

Finally, people are asking for ways to resolve one of the greatest challenges of our time: is there a replacement for our scarce petroleum resources? How can CO2 emissions be reduced? Can we lower the demand for energy? One approach is sustainable mobility. Are there ways and means by which we can contribute to reduce the impact of global warming?

E-mobility replaces oil with renewable electricity thereby reducing fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, and overall energy consumption. In specific figures, this means that to cover the same distance, a car running on electricity requires only about one-quarter of the energy of a combustion engine. So far, so visionary. The electric motor ­ we call it an e-drive ­ is already making full use of this potential: with immediately available torque for spontaneous response and high performance with the utmost level of efficiency. Now we have to focus on the strength of the battery so that the cars running purely on electricity will be able to go much further.

In this article, we shall discuss about the future of the mobility industry in general along with the reason for moving into electric mobility and the socio-economic impact of the transformation in addition to challenges and opportunities.

Need for new mobility solution:
There have been too many discussions or hypes from different segments of the society on the new form of mobility. As we are aware of the existing means of transport systems are time tested and proven, and they have been serving the main purpose of mobility for more than a century, why do we need this transformation? Is it really worth taking so much effort, time and money? It's not just we, the individuals, even many big organizations and nations across the planet are creating a big hype on the subject.

Let's have closer look at the most obvious reasons for the necessity.

One side we have an increasing cause of concern for global warming. Some key facts on Current global gas concentrations in the atmosphere:

• Carbon dioxide: 390 parts per million (ppm) ­ exceeds the natural range experienced in the last 650,000 years and is increasing by 1-2 ppm each year

• All GHG emissions: increasing by 3.3 percent per annum since 2000

• Increase in global mean temperature by 0.7°C compared to pre-industrial times; a 4.9°C increase is expected by 2100.
• 40 percent loss in arctic ice since 1980.
• Rise in sea levels of 3-4 mm/year.
• Increased levels of carbon dioxide absorbed by oceans is resulting in acidification.

• 20-30 percent of plants, animals, and fish at risk of extinction with a 1.5°C-2.5°C increase.
• Adverse effects on agriculture, fisheries, forests, and water resources.
• Countries of low latitude and many coastal regions at risk of flooding.
• Increased frequency of heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, and related impacts (i.e. wildfires, heat stress, vegetation changes)

So we need to address the above issues at the global level with the
contribution from every nation, society across the planet. This impacts not only the current generation also the future generation. The main reason being industry revolution and resource utilization for the comforts we created over the last two generations, we are answerable to our future generation and they too deserve a better quality of life.

Now let's have a quick look at the Fossil fuel scenario. The oil reserves are getting depleted as the consumption is increasing with increasing demand for transportation. Though consumption only for the purpose of mobility is around 40 percent, that's a significant share to have an impact on the demand, pricing and so on. The research data from various organizations confirm the fact that the oil reserves will be just sufficient for the next two to three decades. We need to find an alternative.

The next factor which we need to consider is the increasing pollution across the major cities in the world. In recent times with the populations moving towards the cities like never before, cities are becoming more prone to pollution because of the industries and transportation. Of course, we know that the government is enforcing emission norms through stringent policies. In fact, in India, we leaf frog from Bharat 4 to Bharat 6 to bring down the pollution levels. As per the data goes 14 out of 20 highly polluted cities in the world are in India. We will have to bring down the CO2 levels of the vehicles to address this problem. Over 2-3 million people across the world have reduced lifespan due to pollution-related issues. Should we not do something about it?

India's plan to ramp-up solar power generation to 100 GW by 2022 is among the largest in the world. It will help bring sustainable, clean, climate-friendly electricity to millions of Indians

The Solution:
Electric mobility is the most viable alternative to create a sustainable solution to all our future needs.

Future mobility opportunity:
There are three areas which would the future mobility
1. Electric powertrain
2. Connected and autonomous driving
3. Mobility as a service or shared mobility
The size of the market is roughly around 1 Trillion USD.

Technology trend would be as follows:
• As the powertrain is electric and the complexity in vehicle propulsion will reduce, that will mean a lot of legacy technology in the automotive industry will extinct.

• This would transform or increase the share of the component suppliers and especially the battery suppliers as the battery will have a 30-40 percent share of the vehicle cost.

The Challenges and Opportunities:
The transition to electric mobility is happening now and if you look at the charts we see a movement upwards only in most of the countries. So the question of opportunity doesn't arise. The total market size reaches to 300 billion USD in 2025 and increasing thereafter up to 1 trillion USD within a span of 15-20 years. The challenge is the availability of technology and optimization of performance and cost.

A typical electric powertrain will have the following components.
1. Electric motor as the prime mover.
2. Electric drive which is the control system of the motor.
3. Power electronics systems like DC-DC converter, charge controllers.
4. BMS and Battery pack.
5. Vehicle controller.

Faster adaption depends on the development of these components at a rapid speed. Globally Germany, Korea, and China are already taking lead in the technology development in this area. But the availability of products for the complete range of mobility applications is still not achieved. For example, the farming sector application needs a totally different solution from the passenger car segment. Secondly, there are a lot of environmental conditions to be taken into consideration in addition to safety of the usage of High voltage electric systems in the vehicle.

China has already taken a leading role in this area and they have developed a complete ecosystem for electric mobility. The Government of India also has announced a future roadmap, policies, and subsidies to promote electric mobility. The FAME II policy has also given a roadmap for localization of components to reduce the import of EV components from china.

In terms of the vehicle market, 2W and 3W are the low hanging fruits, followed by vehicle aggregators and public transport solutions and finally the privately used vehicles. In terms of potential, we have a huge market already in India. India is the largest two-wheeler market in the world and the third-largest automotive industry in the world. We are in a nascent state when it comes to market penetration. We can bring in innovative solutions and drive the future market not only in India and also at a global level.

At the same time, I also do not want to ignore a few hurdles in the transformation.

One of them is the availability of charging infrastructure. There is a huge discussion happening on this subject and the government has initiated some steps. But this is one area where a lot of public-private partnership is required. We took 100 years to bring up all the fuel pumps to the level of penetration we have today. Of course, it shouldn't take so much time to establish the charging network as the electricity is available everywhere.

The second issue is the availability of clean energy for use. According to Mr. Mark Lewis of BNP Paribas, the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI) through renewable sources is at least 6-7 times higher than energy through fossil fuels. Most countries across the world are focusing more renewable sources now and we should attain energy sustainability in the next decades.

It's inevitable to take the entire mobility systems to move into electric and that is more than the need to leave sustainable mobility along with clean breathing to our future generations. This transformation also brings a never before huge business opportunity. The intention of this article is to urge our entrepreneurs and startups to make use of the situation to bring out innovative solutions that are useful to society at large.